Skip to main content

The Over/Under(wear) of Our Economy (Posted June 13, 2016)

Practically every time you turn on the news and hear the talking head discuss the economy, you usually get about six words into their spiel and your brain explodes – because they’re always talking about “mitigating factors” and “behavioral predictors”.  Why do they employ such gobbledygook (that’s a word) when they talk about the economy?  Because they’re just guessing, and they’re trying to make you think they’re smart.  Believe me, I went to college with a bunch of budding TV journalists, and their class load didn’t involve Doctorate studies in macro- versus microeconomics in the 12th century – it was a lot of voice projection and learning how to stare at your interviewee until he gets really uncomfortable. 

The following items of discussion are not my own making – I’m not that smart.  Fortunately, though, someone was smart enough to distill this information down to a level I can understand, and I now submit this to you for your illumination.  Here’s a list of more down-to-earth ways to track how the American economy is doing:
  
Lipstick Index
The “lipstick index” is a term coined by a guy at Estee Lauder in 2001.  Since then, the concept has been expanded to nail polish and foundation. However, the basic idea remains the same: when finances are tight, consumers will forego large luxury purchases for smaller indulgences, like cosmetics.

Men's Underwear
The men don’t want to be left out – this is a good indicator of the economy because it’s a basic necessity whose purchase can be pushed into the future until more disposable funds are available. This “index” came from that laugh riot, Alan Greenspan.

Hemlines
The Hemline Index: the theory behind this indicator is that women's hemlines tend to follow the stock market. Skirts tend to get shorter during boom times, while ankle-length hemlines signify a bear market.

Cardboard Box Shipments
The idea behind this one is simple: many goods ship in corrugated cardboard boxes, so when box companies are producing more, it's a good economic sign.


Now, I’m fairly confident the folks at the Fed, at their meeting this week, aren’t going to be discussing whether Alan Greenspan has purchased a new set of briefs (or boxers) or what color lipstick Janet Yellen should or shouldn’t wear (I think she should go with an autumn shade), but we lesser mortals can read the “signs” as well as they can – just fire up the internet and type in a few key words.  You might want to avoid “men’s underwear” and “lipstick” in the same search, though.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Numbers Don't Lie, But Wherein Lies the Truth? (Posted November 21, 2016)

Said with enough conviction, you can make almost anything sound true.   Preface the fabrication with “according to a recent bi-partisan government study,” and you’re three quarters of the way to selling the lie to a lot of people.   Seriously, try this. The next time you’re at a dinner party or having coffee with friends, pepper this little tidbit into the conversation: “I read something really interesting the other day.   According to a recent bi-partisan government study – I think it took them three years to get it all done – middle-aged men who drive either a Toyota Camry or a Honda Odyssey have more testosterone than younger men who drive either a Ford F150 or a Dodge Charger.”   You’ll get some raised eyebrows and looks of mild disbelief, but don’t let that deter you.   Just lift up your hands, palms outward, and say, “I just think it’s interesting, and it makes sense when you think about it” – and then change the subject to something completely u...

Dumb as (or Smart as) a Box of Rocks (Posted June 27, 2016)

Obviously, you all want to know what Brexit means to the economy and the housing market specifically.   So do I!   But since my crystal ball is at the cleaner’s, let’s give the Brits and the European Union a little time to work out the terms of their separation and look at something else.   What’s a “fad ”?   With the help of Google, this is what I got as a definition: “an intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, especially one that is short-lived and without basis in the object's qualities; a craze.” In April 1975, an advertising executive by the name of Gary Dahl invented the Pet Rock.   The idea came from his sitting in a bar with some friends who were complaining about the cost and time required to take care of various types of pets.   He marketed his “pets” by placing a rock in a box cut and shaped like one you would get at the pet store to carry home a puppy or a kitten.   Along with the box and the rock, a booklet was included...

Left Behind (Posted April 4, 2016)

It’s highly likely that almost every single one of you already read the Yahoo! Finance article about the survey that Chase recently completed.   For the seven people who decided to take a nap under a rock last week, I’m going to share some of the major talking points here – the rest of you can step away and have an ice cream or paint your cat’s toenails.   First off, the survey shows that an ALARMING 68% of Americans are starting the home search on their own (gasp!) with 45% using a computer or laptop (as opposed to some other type of technologically advanced processor like a microwave oven) as the first step in this search and 13% using their mobile devices.   (In other related news from the Department of the Obvious, scientists have found that fish still have no use of a bicycle and looking directly at the sun is inadvisable.)   With numbers like these, we should just throw in the towel and join the circus, right?   Here’s the weird thing: in the ...