Skip to main content

The Over/Under(wear) of Our Economy (Posted June 13, 2016)

Practically every time you turn on the news and hear the talking head discuss the economy, you usually get about six words into their spiel and your brain explodes – because they’re always talking about “mitigating factors” and “behavioral predictors”.  Why do they employ such gobbledygook (that’s a word) when they talk about the economy?  Because they’re just guessing, and they’re trying to make you think they’re smart.  Believe me, I went to college with a bunch of budding TV journalists, and their class load didn’t involve Doctorate studies in macro- versus microeconomics in the 12th century – it was a lot of voice projection and learning how to stare at your interviewee until he gets really uncomfortable. 

The following items of discussion are not my own making – I’m not that smart.  Fortunately, though, someone was smart enough to distill this information down to a level I can understand, and I now submit this to you for your illumination.  Here’s a list of more down-to-earth ways to track how the American economy is doing:
  
Lipstick Index
The “lipstick index” is a term coined by a guy at Estee Lauder in 2001.  Since then, the concept has been expanded to nail polish and foundation. However, the basic idea remains the same: when finances are tight, consumers will forego large luxury purchases for smaller indulgences, like cosmetics.

Men's Underwear
The men don’t want to be left out – this is a good indicator of the economy because it’s a basic necessity whose purchase can be pushed into the future until more disposable funds are available. This “index” came from that laugh riot, Alan Greenspan.

Hemlines
The Hemline Index: the theory behind this indicator is that women's hemlines tend to follow the stock market. Skirts tend to get shorter during boom times, while ankle-length hemlines signify a bear market.

Cardboard Box Shipments
The idea behind this one is simple: many goods ship in corrugated cardboard boxes, so when box companies are producing more, it's a good economic sign.


Now, I’m fairly confident the folks at the Fed, at their meeting this week, aren’t going to be discussing whether Alan Greenspan has purchased a new set of briefs (or boxers) or what color lipstick Janet Yellen should or shouldn’t wear (I think she should go with an autumn shade), but we lesser mortals can read the “signs” as well as they can – just fire up the internet and type in a few key words.  You might want to avoid “men’s underwear” and “lipstick” in the same search, though.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Pucker Up

Recently, I saw an infographic either on Facebook or Instagram (which means it HAS TO BE TRUE) that read something like this: “80% of all plane crashes occur in either the first 3 minutes or the last 8 minutes of a flight.”   Hmmmm .   I guess that’s one way to look at the data – and I guess it’s encouraging to those nervous flyers who like to play the odds – that if you have a 120-minute flight, you have a high percentage of living blissfully for the 109 minutes between takeoff and landing.   However, the infographic would be more accurate if it read something like this: “100% of ALL plane crashes occur in the last 10 seconds of a flight.”   Before you curl up in the fetal position and hide under your desk in light of this grim statistic, take a few deep breaths, and let me explain: no matter how you couch the truth, it’s still the truth.   There’s a new website out in Internetland (I’m sure that’s what Al Gore wanted to name it when he invented ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Posted August 31, 2015

Fast . . . So They’re Not Furious InSellerate , a lead-generation company, conducted a study that yielded some very interesting insights: •    32% of consumers expect a company to respond to an online inquiry within 30 minutes •    42% of consumers expect contact within one hour •    M ore than half of the companies studied (56.34%) did not respond to the online or email inquiry at all Of those companies that did respond, the average response time exceeded 24 hours, and the primary response vehicle was email, which is a passive, relatively non-effective method of contact .   The take-away thought from all of this is “no kidding”, of course, but it underscores the wisdom that a lead is only as good as the work you put into it. Safety Over Sales According to a USA Today article, realtors in Iowa are taking steps to ensure the safety of all agents. The initiative includes an optional seller contract that prohibits any agent from ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Perspective Produces Progress

Each week I try to write something that will either make you think about a rather humdrum mortgage/real estate topic in a new way or at least clear the cerebral cobwebs.   Admittedly, some weeks I’m better at accomplishing that than others – my apologies for those “off” weeks.   As I’ve been trying to come up with a topic for this week’s missive, it’s not so much that I’ve been hitting a brick wall that’s been keeping me from inspiration, it’s that I’ve felt sort of “dragged down” by so many things that have been happening here in our own backyard over the past few weeks that have been . . . less than inspiring.   It seems that wherever you turn – TV, radio, Facebook, Instagram , newspapers (they still exist) – one party isn’t happy unless the opposing party is proven wrong and/or devastated.   I’m not advocating the philosophy that “everyone’s a winner and should get a trophy just for showing up” – I’m an advocate of just the opposite when it comes to c...
Post a Comment
Read more