Skip to main content

Get a Little Freaky (Posted September 26, 2016)

Before you think this publication of ours has gone off the deep end, hear me out.  The title of this edition has to do with a popular series of books from Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner titled Freakonomics, Super Freakonomics, and Think Like a Freak.  It’s very likely that many of you have read at least one, if not all, of these books.  The third book in this little trifecta of cerebral swordplay, Think Like a Freak, will start us off on our discussion today. 

In one of the early chapters, the authors discuss “the three hardest words in the English language” – and they’re not “I love you”, “Santa’s not real”, or “We’re outta tacos?”  No, the three hardest words in the English language are – does anybody want to lay down some bets here before we proceed? – “I don’t know.”  Once most of us reach a certain age, we don’t like to admit that we’re not in the loop on something or we haven’t figured something out just yet, and our “bluffing” gene kicks into high gear. 

They then cited a study done by this really smart (and extremely patient – you’ll see why in a minute) guy at University of Pennsylvania.  He enlisted nearly 300 “experts” – government officials, political-science scholars, national-security experts, economists, etc. – to make thousands of predictions THAT HE CHARTED OVER THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS (that’s patience!).  These were smart people, right, who know a lot of stuff about a lot of things.  However, the results of the study were shocking.  While 96% of these experts had postgraduate training (read: they thought they were smartest of the smartypants), their predictions were about as accurate as “dart-throwing chimps”.  When asked to name one of the basic reasons these “experts” were not very good at predicting outcomes, Professor Shifty McGotcha said it was overconfidence.  In other words, because these folks are experts in one or two areas, they think they’re experts (or at least smarter than the average bear) in practically all corners of our existence.  Rather than admitting their limits, they forged ahead with predictions related to a whole bunch of stuff that’s not even CLOSE to their specialties. 

This was all preface to their main point: while it may seem against our nature to admit we don’t know something, and our brains will try to stop our mouths from saying “I don’t know,” those are actually the THREE MOST POWERFUL WORDS (when combined, of course) in the English language.  Why?  Contrary to what we may initially think, saying “I don’t know” doesn’t show weakness – quite the opposite, it shows that we are willing to go find out.  (Now, don’t mistake this with a teenager’s “I don’t know” when asked the current location of his shoes or your car keys – he’s not signifying a deep-seated desire to seek out those items on your behalf; he’d just rather resume texting, tweeting, and/or eating.) 


Whether you’re the one on the giving or receiving end of an “I don’t know”, think of the courage (and WISDOM) it takes to utter those words when asked a question.  When you’re about to ask your realtor a question and you stop yourself and say, “I can’t ask her that.  She won’t know the answer,” by all means, ask the question.  It’ll give your realtor the chance to research the answer and get back to you with more information than you had originally anticipated.  Win win!  If you’re a realtor, you WANT your clients to ask you questions to which you don’t know the answer. Yes, you read that correctly.  If they feel they can ask you any question, and they know you’re going to be honest if you don’t know the answer, they’re going to rely on you even more heavily because they know you’re going to research the heck out of their question(s) and not only give them complete but honest answers.  And THAT certainly beats having chimpanzees throwing darts (or other objects) at you and your clients!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Financial Nearsightedness

Years ago when the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was created, we had some wacko thought that part of the job of the folks filling its ranks would be to . . . protect the consumer.  In some people’s view, this would mean that builders of new homes would no longer be able to dangle the carrot of “free” incentives if the buyer would finance the purchase through the builder’s in-house or preferred lender.  To those same people, it just made sense that the CFPB was created to even the playing field and make it so that the consumer got the very best deal available.  Well, we were wrong. Builders ARE allowed to offer incentives for using their in-house and preferred lenders despite the fact that sort of goes against the idea that the consumer is getting the very best deal available. And for most consumers, all they see is the incentive, and this computes to less money coming out of their pocket at closing  –  and they’re right (sort of).  The purpose of today’s article is si
Post a Comment
Read more

Topless Professionals - Nope

Fads come and go, certainly, but you can’t always tell the difference in the moment between a fad and a trend  –  because refusing to adapt to the trends can be limiting . . . if not disastrous.  Let me share a couple of examples where failing to see where things were headed didn’t turn out well.   An engineer presented the idea of a “filmless camera” to the executives at Kodak back in 1975, but they laughed him to scorn.     In 2012, Kodak was forced to file for bankruptcy because they failed to adapt to the digital world.     We all know Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, but how many of us recognize the name of Ron Wayne (and, no, that’s not Batman’s brother)?     Ronny was the third founding member of Apple, and he sold his 10% stake in the company in 1976 for $1500.     His shares would now be worth over $50 billion.     WAY BACK in 2000, Reed Hastings approached Blockbuster and offered to sell Netflix for $50 million.  Blockbuster turned Hastings down.  Netflix is now wor
Post a Comment
Read more

Sitting on the Fence Only Gives You Splinters

“I woke up this morning and couldn't find my socks, so I called information.   She said they were behind the couch.   She was right.”   Reading the words of comedian Stephen Wright isn’t quite the same as actually hearing them with his deadpan delivery, but they’re still funny.   The same can be said for timeless wisdom: whether you hear it coming directly from the lips of a wizened old sage or you read it in a little missive such as this, it’s still wisdom, right?   They say a picture’s worth a thousand words, so you’re about to get 2,000 words’ worth right here: I’m going to show you two graphs that are going to speak volumes about buying power and interest rates – far more than I could convey if I tried to write over 2,000 words (and probably put you to sleep).   Obviously, this first graph shows how even a slight change in interest rates can affect someone’s buying power in the real estate market.   There’s a fairly big swing between what someone can a
Post a Comment
Read more