Skip to main content

Perspective: the Key to Prosperity


Depending on which news channel you watch or which website you follow, the economy and the world are either going to Hell in a hand basket or we’re exactly nine seconds away from entering Nirvana.  We could go into the reasons for the differing perspectives, but since you’re reading this column, the only perspective that REALLY matters is mine, right?  I say that with my tongue firmly planted in my cheek, of course, but I would like to take a moment and just point out a few things that are devoid of passions and politics that should help us all gain a little non-partisan perspective about the housing market. 

I know I’ve written about this before, but it bears repeating: we are not approaching a bubble.  “That’s your opinion, you filthy animal,” some of you may say, but let me give you some data to let you decide for yourself (data about it not being opinion – I can’t do anything, really, to dissuade you from thinking I’m a filthy animal).  Using the Tucson, AZ, housing market as my data set, let’s take a look at a couple of things, and you can decide for yourself if my bubble comment is correct (and I hope you reconsider your opinion of my personal hygiene):

In April of 2007 at the height of the “Bubble Era” (I just made up that name), there were 10,387 houses for sale – that was the peak for the Tucson market, and the numbers started to decline from that point.  In February of this year, the number of houses for sale was only 3,293.

Granted, those numbers are going to vary from market to market, and there will be exceptions, but I believe this proves the rule:  we’re not even close to the numbers that we were seeing back in the Bubble Era. 

Let me share a couple more pieces of information to round out this discussion on the state of the housing market – I’ll use Tucson again as my point of reference.  In June of 2007 (the peak), the median home price was $225,000, average sales price was $293,443.  In February of this year, the median home price was $207,000, and the average sales price was $249,095.  For further perspective: the median home price in February of 2015 and 2016 were $168,900 and $194,000, respectively; the average sales price in February of 2015 and 2016 were $209,527 and $229,703, respectively.

While my stating the obvious may, perhaps, cause a collective “duh” to be uttered, I’ll do so anyway: home values are growing at a healthy but calm pace.  Coupling that with the fact we’re not close to a bubble forming, you have reason to be happy if you’re a current homeowner and optimistic that a home is a good, solid investment if you’re a prospective buyer. I’m reminded of something a friend’s dad used to say each time they were on a road trip and my friend would ask, “Are we there yet?”.  His dad would always reply, “No, son.  We are always HERE.” Stop the hand wringing and embrace the now. The future is only the result of today.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Naked Truth About Home Buying

It’s highly likely I’ve already written about this, but I’ll try to make it entertaining at least.   There’s a guy who works in ou r office who suffers from kidney stones – and from what he’s described, “suffers” might even be a little too tame a word for it.   As an aside, though, when you ask him how painful the experience is, he gets an odd smile and says, “It’s the most intense pain I’ve ever experienced, but it’s hard to describe.   I’ve heard a lot of people compare it to the pain a woman experiences while giving birth.   To that, I must say, those people are big, fat liars!   I’ve been in the presence of a woman giving birth, twice, and her pain has to be 100 times worse.   They’re passing the equivalent of a Buick.   I’m passing a pumpkin seed.”   He’s always been a colorful fellow. He’s had this wonderful condition for over a decade now, and the stones make their appearance about every 18 months or so.   Up until recently, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Saving Money is Music to Your Ears (Posted January 9, 2017)

For all the “old” people out there, you’ll instantly know the name Daryl Hall.   For those of you who are still on your original set of adult teeth (perhaps because you got your braces off fairly recently), Daryl Hall is a musician (the blonde half of the duo Hall & Oates – the one who DIDN’T have a mustache that looked like it was straight out of an ’ 80s adult film) with a number of albums (albums a re these big, black 12-inch vinyl “platters” that look like a pregnant CD) that have been certified as gold/platinum and hit songs to his credit, some of which he recorded himself and some he wrote for others.   Going back to 2007, he started a show on the internet called Live from Daryl’s House ; in 2011, he took it to cable where it currently airs.   The concept is relatively simple: he has musicians from all genres and eras come to his house to jam with him and his band.   In between songs, they talk about music and memories, and they usually end up eatin...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Waiting (is the Hardest Part)

Full disclosure: this week’s missive is more for the consumer than for the realtor.   I can promise, though, that for all the realtors who read this, you’ll most likely find yourself saying or thinking something along the lines of “preach on, brother”, “testify”, “amen”, or “you got that right”.   W ith that in mind, I implore you ALL to read on.   Recently, I received my monthly wireless phone bill, and it was $20 higher than it should have been.   I had made some changes on my plan a little before that, but my monthly bill’s amount was supposed to stay virtually the same – in fact, my first bill after the changes was a little bit less than my usual amount.   Bonus!   Befuddled, I called the company and asked the operator to help me understand why my bill was $20 higher and then find a way to get it back down to the price I had been promised when I had made the changes to my plan.   Long story short: the operator with whom I had originally m...
Post a Comment
Read more